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An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model

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  • John Duffy
  • Sean Crockett

Abstract

We implement a dynamic asset pricing experiment in the spirit of Lucas (1978) with storable assets and non-storable cash. In one treatment we impose diminishing marginal returns to cash to incentivize consumption-smoothing across periods, while in a second treatment there is no induced motive for trade. In the former case subjects smooth consumption, and assets trade at a discount relative to the risk-neutral fundamental price. This under-pricing is a departure from the `bubbles` observed in the experimental asset pricing experiments of Smith et al. (1988). In our second treatment with no induced motive for trade, assets trade at a premium relative to expected value and shareholdings are highly concentrated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 504.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision: May 2013
Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:504

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Related research

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Lucas Tree Model; Experimental Economics; General Equilibrium; Intertemporal Choice; Macrofinance; Consumption Smoothing; Risk Attitudes;

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  1. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Asparouhova, Elena & Bossaerts, Peter & Plott, Charles, 2003. "Excess demand and equilibration in multi-security financial markets: the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, January.
  3. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  4. Noussair, C. & Matheny, K. & Olson, M., 1998. "An Experimental Study of Decisions in Dynamic Optimization Problems," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1110, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  5. Volodymyr Lugovskyy & Daniela Puzzello & Steven Tucker, 2009. "An Experimental Study of Bubble Formation in Asset Markets Using the Tâtonnement Pricing Mechanism," Working Papers in Economics 09/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  6. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1970. "A Consumption-Oriented Theory of the Demand for Financial Assets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 321-51, July.
  7. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
  8. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  9. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  10. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October.
  11. Katerina Sherstyuk & Nori Tarui & Tatsuyoshi Saijo, 2013. "Payment schemes in infinite-horizon experimental games," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 125-153, March.
  12. Pedro Dal Bo & Guillaume R. Frochette, 2011. "The Evolution of Cooperation in Infinitely Repeated Games: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 411-29, February.
  13. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  15. Wheatley, Simon, 1988. "Some tests of the consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-215, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2013. "'Lucas' In The Laboratory," NBER Working Papers 19068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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