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Foreign Aid and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies

Author

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  • Muhammad Javid

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

Despite receiving large quantities of foreign aid, Pakistan, like many other developing countries, has remained stagnant and become more aiddependent. This grim reality has provoke d a vigorous debate on the effectiveness of aid. This study examines the effectiveness of aid, focusing on the ongoing debate on the interactive effect of aid and policy on sustainable economic growth. The empirical analysis is based on the ARDL cointegration approach, using the data for the period 1960 to 2008. The empirical findings are that foreign aid and real GDP have a negative relationship, while the aid-policy interactive term and real GDP growth have a positive and significant relationship. Interesting results emerge when aid-GDP alone is introduced into the growth equation and has an insignificant positive coefficient in the long run and a negative and weakly significant coefficient in the short run, while the aidpolicy interactive term has a positive and significant coefficient both in the short run and the long run. When we disaggregate aid in terms of the bilateral and multilateral components, bilateral aid is significantly positive in the short run and multilateral aid is insignificant, while the aid interactive term is positive in both cases. The results strongly support the view that foreign aid does have a positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan, though conditionally so, i.e., if based on sound macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Javid & Abdul Qayyum, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:72, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2011:72
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    Cited by:

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    2. Muhammad Luqman & Mirajul Haq & Karim Khan, 2015. "The Role of Political Regimes in the Macroeconomic Effectiveness of Foreign Aid in Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 118-137, June.
    3. Muhammad Athar Nadeem & Zhiying Liu & Haji Suleman Ali & Amna Younis & Muhammad Bilal & Yi Xu, 2020. "Innovation and Sustainable Development: Does Aid and Political Instability Impede Innovation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    4. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Lubaina Dawood & Khadija Karim & Gul Nagina & Niamatullah, 2020. "Idealist, Realist or Neo-Realist Financial Aid Donors to Pakistan," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, August.
    6. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Malik Muhammad & Muhammad Usman, 2018. "Impact of Project and Programme Aid on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 145-174.
    7. Pierre E. Biscaye & Travis W. Reynolds & C. Leigh Anderson, 2017. "Relative Effectiveness of Bilateral and Multilateral Aid on Development Outcomes," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1425-1447, November.
    8. Faheem Jehangir Khan, 2016. "The Aid Policy Network in Pakistan: An Actor-Network Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2016:140, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Ojiambo Elphas & Jacob Oduor & Mburu Tom & Wawire Nelson, 2015. "Working Paper 226 - Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth in Kenya," Working Paper Series 2169, African Development Bank.
    10. Philip Michael Kargbo, 2012. "Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Sierra Leone: Empirical Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    12. repec:thr:techub:10010:y:2020:i:1:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ali, Sharafat & Ahmad, Najid, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of Foreign Aid and Income Inequality in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Michael Mitchell Omoruyi Ehizuelen & Meibo Huang, 2016. "Fostering Economic Development: Is External Finance Responsible for the Poor Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 313-347, June.
    15. Anam Tanveer & Muhammad Mehran Latif & Maryum Ziafat, 2019. "Role of Foreign Aid in Employment Generation: A Case Study of Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(2), pages 103-112, December.
    16. Thomas Bwire & Oliver Morrissey & Tim Lloyd, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Olufemi Saibu, 2014. "Capital Inflow and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: The Role of Trade Openness," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 6(6), pages 99-113, December.
    19. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Nasir, Muhammad & Rehman, Faiz Ur & Orakzai, Mejzgaan, 2012. "Exploring the nexus: Foreign aid, war on terror, and conflict in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1137-1145.
    21. Lubaina Dawood Baig & Sana-ur -Rehman, 2017. "Impact of Financial Aid Branding on Public Perception and Favourability," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 129-138, November.
    22. Kargbo, Philip Michael, 2012. "Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Sierra Leone: Empirical Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Aid; Macroeconomic policies; Economic Growth; Pakistan; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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