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Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Shamena Anwar

    (Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Hanming Fang

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We develop a model of a Parole Board contemplating whether to grant parole release to a prisoner who has finished serving their minimum sentence. The model implies a simple outcome test for racial prejudice robust to the inframarginality problem. Our test involves running simple regressions of whether a prisoner recidivates on the exposure time to the risk of recidivism and its square, using only the sample of prisoners who are granted parole release strictly between their minimum and maximum sentences and separately by race. If the co- efficient estimates on the exposure time term differ by race, then there is evidence of racial prejudice against the racial group with the smaller coefficient estimate. We implement our test for prejudice using data from Pennsylvania from January 1996 to December 31, 2001. Although we find racial differences in time served, we find no evidence for racial prejudice on the part of the Parole Board based on our outcome test.

Suggested Citation

  • Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang, 2012. "Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kate Antonovics & Brian G. Knight, 2009. "A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 163-177, February.
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    6. Shamena Anwar & Patrick Bayer & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2012. "The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 1017-1055.
    7. Nicola Persico, 2009. "Racial Profiling? Detecting Bias Using Statistical Evidence," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 229-254, May.
    8. M. Marit Rehavi & Sonja B. Starr, 2014. "Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1320-1354.
    9. Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang, 2006. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 127-151, March.
    10. John Knowles & Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2001. "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(1), pages 203-232, February.
    11. David S. Abrams & Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2012. "Do Judges Vary in Their Treatment of Race?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(2), pages 347-383.
    12. Stéphane Mechoulan & Nicolas Sahuguet, 2015. "Assessing Racial Disparities in Parole Release," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 39-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Lang & Ariella Kahn-Lang Spitzer, 2020. "Race Discrimination: An Economic Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 68-89, Spring.
    2. Brendon McConnell & Kegon Teng Kok Tan & Mariyana Zapryanova, 2023. "How do Parole Boards Respond to Large, Societal Shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks," Working Papers 2023-010, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Jessica LaVoice & Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2019. "Racial Disparities in Debt Collection," Papers 1910.02570, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    4. Dragan Ilić, 2013. "Marginally discriminated: the role of outcome tests in European jurisdiction," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 271-294, October.
    5. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Crystal S Yang, 2018. "Racial Bias in Bail Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(4), pages 1885-1932.
    6. Ilic, Dragan, 2013. "Prejudice in Swiss Naturalization Decisions: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79953, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Ili, Dragan, 2016. "Prejudice in Naturalization Decisions: Theory and Evidence," Working papers 2016/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    8. Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2021. "Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 71-96, Fall.
    9. Pauline Grosjean & Federico Masera & Hasin Yousaf, 2023. "Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 138(1), pages 413-463.
    10. Ilić, Dragan, 2018. "Prejudice in naturalization decisions: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Racial Prejudice; Statistical Discrimination; Outcome Test; Parole; Recidivism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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