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Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand

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Author Info
Rafael Rob () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Nikolaos Vettas () (Department of Economics, University of Athens)
Abstract

We explore entry into a foreign market with uncertain demand growth. A multinational can serve the foreign demand by two modes, or by a combination thereof: it can export its products, or it can create productive capacity via Foreign Direct Investment. The advantage of FDI is that it allows for lower marginal cost than exporting does. The disadvantage is that FDI is irreversible and, hence, entails the risk of creating underutilized capacity in the case that the market turns out to be small. The presence of demand uncertainty and irreversibility gives rise to an interior solution, where the multinational, under certain conditions, both exports its products and does FDI.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 03-001.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:03-001

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment Entry Exports New Markets

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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  1. Markusen, James R, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-89, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giovanni Maggi, 1996. "Endogenous Leadership in a New Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 641-659, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2001. "Overseas Investment and Firm Exports," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 108-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bergemann, Dirk & Valimaki, Juuso, 1996. "Learning and Strategic Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1125-49, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Yamawaki, Hideki, 1991. "Exports and Foreign Distributional Activities: Evidence on Japanese Firms in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 294-300, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Buckley, Peter J & Casson, Mark, 1981. "The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 75-87, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
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  10. Nikolaos Vettas, 1998. "Demand and Supply in New Markets: Diffusion with Bilateral Learning," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(1), pages 215-233, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Horstmann, Ignatius J & Markusen, James R, 1987. "Strategic Investments and the Development of Multinationals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 109-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ignatius Horstmann & James R. Markusen, 1987. "Licensing versus Direct Investment: A Model of Internalization by the Multinational Enterprise," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 464-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Fragmentation and multinational production," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 935-945, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Venables, Anthony J, 1996. "Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 341-59, May.
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  15. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Horst, Thomas, 1971. "The Theory of the Multinational Firm: Optimal Behavior under Different Tariff and Tax Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1059-72, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Horstmann, Ignatius J & Markusen, James R, 1996. "Exploring New Markets: Direct Investment, Contractual Relations and the Multinational Enterprise," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-19, February.
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  19. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2005. "The Role of Multinational Firms in International Trade: The Case of Japan," Discussion papers 05012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kotseva, Rossitsa & Vettas, Nikolaos, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports Dynamics with Demand Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 5262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arunish Chawla, 2008. "Multinational Firms, Monopolistic Competition and Foreign Investment Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp0866, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Horst Raff & Michael J. Ryan, 2008. "Firm-Specific Characteristics and the Timing of Foreign Direct Investment Projects," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 1-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, . "FDI versus Exports Substitutes or Complements? A Three Nations Model and Empirical Evidence," FIW Working Paper series 012, FIW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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