Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products
AbstractThis paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics in its series Working Papers with number 32.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.uni-paderborn.de/fakultaeten/wiwi/department4/cie/
More information through EDIRC
Growth causes of agri-food trade; the CMS model; the EU’s CAP reform; China’s accession to WTO; financial crisis;
Other versions of this item:
- Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua & Tan, Xiangyong, 2011. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2359-2368.
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2010-11-27 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-TRA-2010-11-27 (Transition Economics)
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- repec:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2008:i:01:p:216-231_00 is not listed on IDEAS
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