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Rate of Convergence of Predictive Distributions for Dependent Data

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizia Berti

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)

  • Irene Crimaldi

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Bologna)

  • Luca Pratelli

    (Accademia Navale di Livorno)

  • Pietro Rigo

    (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia)

Abstract

This paper deals with empirical processes of the type Cn(B) = n^(1/2) {µn(B) - P(Xn+1 in B | X1, . . . ,Xn)} , where (Xn) is a sequence of random variables and µn = (1/n)SUM(i=1,..,n) d(Xi) the empirical measure. Conditions for supB|Cn(B)| to converge stably (in particular, in distribution) are given, where B ranges over a suitable class of measurable sets. These conditions apply when (Xn) is exchangeable, or, more generally, conditionally identically distributed (in the sense of [6]). By such conditions, in some relevant situations, one obtains that supB|Cn(B)|-P->0 or even that n^(1/2) supB|Cn(B)| converges a.s.. Results of this type are useful in Bayesian statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizia Berti & Irene Crimaldi & Luca Pratelli & Pietro Rigo, 2009. "Rate of Convergence of Predictive Distributions for Dependent Data," Quaderni di Dipartimento 091, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    • Handle: RePEc:pav:wpaper:091
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berti, Patrizia & Rigo, Pietro, 2002. "A uniform limit theorem for predictive distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 113-120, January.
    2. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Fortini & Sonia Petrone & Hristo Sariev, 2021. "Predictive Constructions Based on Measure-Valued Pólya Urn Processes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Patrizia Berti & Luca Pratelli & Pietro Rigo, 2010. "Limit Theorems for Empirical Processes Based on Dependent Data," Quaderni di Dipartimento 132, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    3. Berti, Patrizia & Dreassi, Emanuela & Pratelli, Luca & Rigo, Pietro, 2021. "Asymptotics of certain conditionally identically distributed sequences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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