IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pas/papers/2011-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Abstract

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) for the next two decades against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modeling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next two decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections," Departmental Working Papers 2011-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2011-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2011/wp_econ_2011_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    2. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344, December.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    6. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    8. Paul R. Krugman, 2008. "Trade and Wages, Reconsidered," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 103-154.
    9. van Bergeijk,Peter A. G. & Brakman,Steven (ed.), 2010. "The Gravity Model in International Trade," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196154.
    10. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, Fall.
    11. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms and the Structure of Protection in Vietnam," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 161-187, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Madhurima Bhattacharyay, 2016. "Trends and Patterns of Growth, Development, Achievements of China and India: A Comparative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5788, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Hal Hill, 2010. "Asian trade: long-term patterns and key policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 52-82, November.
    2. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 65-95, Winter/Sp.
    3. Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
    4. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "China’s Trade in Asia and the World: Long run Relation with Short run Dynamics," MPRA Paper 30664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2011.
    5. Athukorala, Prema–Chandra & Menon, Jayant, 2010. "Global Production Sharing, Trade Patterns, and Determinants of Trade Flows in East Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 41, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Fukunari Kimura & Ayako Obashi, 2016. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 33-64, Springer.
    7. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kophaiboon, 2013. "Trade and Investment Patterns in Asia: Implications for Multilateralizing Regionalism," Departmental Working Papers 2013-16, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    8. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2013. "Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia," Departmental Working Papers 2013-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    9. Meenu Tewari & C. Veeramani, 2016. "Network Trade and Development: What Do Patterns of Vertically Specialized Trade in ASEAN Tell Us About India’s Place in Asian Production Networks?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 349-388, June.
    10. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Martina Vidovic & Anca M. Voicu, 2014. "EU-Accession Effects on Sectoral Trade: A Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Approach with Panel Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 4903, CESifo.
    11. Yoke Fong Kong & Richard Kneller, 2016. "Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 195-220, February.
    12. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Voicu, Anca M. & Vidovic, Martina, 2011. "CEECs Integration into Regional Production Networks. Trade Effects of EU-Accession," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 55, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    13. repec:got:cegedp:125 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Toshihiro Okubo & Yuta Watabe & Kaori Furuyama, 2016. "Export of Recyclable Materials: Evidence from Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(1), pages 134-148, Winter/Sp.
    15. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    16. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2008. "China's integration into global production networks and its implications for export-led growth strategy in other countries in the region," Departmental Working Papers 2008-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    17. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Soumyananda Dinda, 2014. "China integrates Asia with the world: an empirical study," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 70-89, May.
    19. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2011. "The International Effects of China’s Growth, Trade and Education Booms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(10), pages 1703-1725, October.
    20. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Voicu, Anca M. & Vidovic, Martina, 2011. "CEECs integration into regional and global production networks," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 125, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    21. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian trade; trade patterns; global production sharing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2011-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prema-chandra Athukorala (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.