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Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections

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  • Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Abstract

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) for the next two decades against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modeling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next two decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2011/wp_econ_2011_05.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-05.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2011-05

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Keywords: Asian trade; trade patterns; global production sharing;

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  1. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, October.
  2. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344.
  3. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms and the Structure of Protection in Vietnam," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 161-187, 02.
  4. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2007. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?," Departmental Working Papers 2007-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
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