Fitting U.S. Trend Inflation: A Rolling-Window Approach
AbstractThe role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be concerned with a time-varying inflation target, which is modeled as a persistent and stochastic process. The identification of trend inflation shocks (as opposed to a number of alternative innovations) is achieved by exploiting the measure of trend inflation recently proposed by Arouba and Schorfheide (2011, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics). Our main findings point to a substantial contribution of trend inflation shocks for the volatility of inflation and the policy rate. Such contribution is found to be time-dependent and highest during the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0152.
Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
trend inflation shocks; new-keynesian DSGE models; rolling-window approach great moderation.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-11-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2012-11-17 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-17 (Macroeconomics)
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