Probability and uncertainty: the legacy of Georgescu-Roegen

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Probability and uncertainty: the legacy of Georgescu-Roegen

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Fulvio Fontini () (University of Padua)

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Fulvio Fontini

Abstract

In this paper we consider Georgescu-Roegen's approach to uncertainty, showing that his characterization of expectations cannot be reduced to any probabilistic decision making model. Drawing upon Georgescu-Roegen lesson a lexicographical utility function is proposed and analyzed in the mark of his own peculiar scientific methodology. It is demonstrated that such a formulation can be useful in solving usual failure of the expected utility model, such as the Ellsberg paradoxes. The epistemic limits of our re-construction are considered, too.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0008.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0008

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-12-20 (All new papers)
NEP-HPE-2005-12-20 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
NEP-UPT-2005-12-20 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
Balázs Egert, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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