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Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994

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  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer
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    Abstract

    This paper reviews the design and performance of monetary policy in South Africa (SA) during 1994-2004. Quantitative indexes of transparency reveal a strong rise in the transparency and accountability of monetary policy between 1994 and 2004. Inflation and interest rate expectations data and forward interest rate data are used to demonstrate the incerased credibility and reasonable predictability of monetary policy since adopting inflation targeting in 2000. The SA Reserve Bank`s view on monetary policy transmission channels is discussed, and its recent forecasting performance is evaluated. We find that monetary policy decisions taken in response to external and domestic shocks under inflation targeting have significantly improved relative to the preceding framework, though data quality has been a constraint. Further, inflation targeting has not disadvantaged potential investment in terms of the level of tax adjusted real interest rates. Finally, the important role for complementary policies to support monetary policy is motivated.

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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2006-07text.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2006-07.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2006-07

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2001-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin W. Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson & Kjetil Houg & Haakon O.Aa. Solheim & Erling Steigum, 2002. "An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway," Working Papers 120, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 2656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," FMG Discussion Papers dp547, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2003. "The Currency Premium and Local-Currency Denominated Debt Costs in South Africa," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    12. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    16. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409056, EconWPA.
    18. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and its consequences," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    19. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
    21. Charles Bean & Jens D.J. Larsen & Kalin Nikolov, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory; evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 113, European Central Bank.
    22. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA.
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