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Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia

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  • Stefan Dercon
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    Abstract

    Using panel data from villages in rural Ethiopia, the paper studies the determinants of consumption growth (1989-97), based on a microgrowth model, controlling for heterogeneity. Consumption grew substantially, but with diverse experiences across villages and individuals. A key focus is on whether shocks affect growth. Rainfall shocks have a substantial impact on consumption growth, and its impact presists for many years. There also appears to be a significant, persistent growth impact from the largescale famine in the 1980s, as well as substantial externalities from the presence of road infrastructure. The findings related to the persistent effects of rainfall shocks and the famine crisis imply that welfare losses due to the lack of insurance and protection measures are well beyond the welfare cost of short term consumption fluctuations.

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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2003-12text.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2003-12.

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    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2003-12

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
    2. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    3. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1727, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
    5. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Victor Lavy & Rekha Menon, 2001. "Child Health and School Enrollment: A Longitudinal Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 185-205.
    6. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
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    Cited by:
    1. Harold Alderman & Trina Haque, 2007. "Insurance Against Covariate Shocks : The Role of Index-Based Insurance in Social Protection in Low-Income Countries of Africa," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6736.
    2. Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Security is like oxygen," DSGD discussion papers 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Security Is Like Oxygen: Evidence From Uganda," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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