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Abstract

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. We test a greed theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a grievance theory focusing on ethnic and religious divisions, political repression and inequality. We find that greed considerably outperforms grievance. Consistent with the greed theory, both dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2002-01.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2002-01

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Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
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Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
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Related research

Keywords: Conflict; Development; Natural Resources; Panel Data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
• C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
• D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
• H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
• O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

References

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Edna Carolina Sastoque Ramírez & Mario García Molina, 2007. "Pasiones e intereses: las causas de la guerra civil de 1876-1877 en el Estado Soberano de Santander," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO UEC 003962, UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA.
2. Campos, Nauro F & Kuzeyev, Vitaliy S., 2007. "On the Dynamics of Ethnic Fractionalization," IZA Discussion Papers 2822, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • Campos, Nauro F & Kuzeyev, Vitaliy, 2007. "On the Dynamics of Ethnic Fractionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
3. Holger Strulik, 2005. "Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development," Discussion Papers 05-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
   
   • Holger Strulik, 2008. "Social composition, social conflict and economic development," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1145-1170, 07.
   • Strulik, Holger, 2006. "Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-350, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
   • Holger Strulik, 2004. "Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_018, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
4. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/80, International Monetary Fund.
5. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
6. World Bank, 2007. "Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6836.
7. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Is Inequality really a Major Cause of Violent Crime? Evidence From a Cross-National Panel of Robbery and Violent Theft Rates," Law and Economics 0312002, EconWPA, revised 11 May 2004.
8. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan & Borje Tallroth, Nils, 2002. "The political economy of fiscal policy and economic management in oil exporting countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2899, The World Bank.
9. Fernando, Estrada, 2010. "Networks information in the civil wars," MPRA Paper 21644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
10. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
11. Torres, Magui Moreno & Anderson, Michael, 2004. "Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments For Poverty Reduction," PRDE Working Papers 12822, Department for International Development (DFID) (UK).

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