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Greed and Grievance in Civil War

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler
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    Abstract

    We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. We test a greed theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a grievance theory focusing on ethnic and religious divisions, political repression and inequality. We find that greed considerably outperforms grievance. Consistent with the greed theory, both dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method.

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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2002-01text.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2002-01.

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    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2002-01

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    Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Conflict; Development; Natural Resources; Panel Data;

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    Cited by:
    1. Holger Strulik, 2005. "Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development," Discussion Papers 05-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Campos, Nauro F & Kuzeyev, Vitaliy, 2007. "On the Dynamics of Ethnic Fractionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Is Inequality really a Major Cause of Violent Crime? Evidence From a Cross-National Panel of Robbery and Violent Theft Rates," Law and Economics 0312002, EconWPA, revised 11 May 2004.
    4. Edna Carolina Sastoque Ramírez & Mario García Molina, 2007. "Pasiones e intereses: las causas de la guerra civil de 1876-1877 en el Estado Soberano de Santander," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO UEC 003962, UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA.
    5. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan & Borje Tallroth, Nils, 2002. "The political economy of fiscal policy and economic management in oil exporting countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2899, The World Bank.
    6. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    7. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Fernando, Estrada, 2010. "Networks information in the civil wars," MPRA Paper 21644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
    10. World Bank, 2007. "Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6836, January.
    11. Torres, Magui Moreno & Anderson, Michael, 2004. "Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments For Poverty Reduction," PRDE Working Papers 12822, Department for International Development (DFID) (UK).
    12. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/80, International Monetary Fund.

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