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Pre-Marital Fertility and Labour Market Opportunities: Evidence from the 1970 British Cohort Study

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Author Info
Emilia Del Bono
Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of earnings and employment opportunities on pre-marital fertility. Using data from a sample of British women born in 1970, we estimate an independent competing risk harzard model of fertility and cohabitation decisions. Our results show that individual earnings opportunities are negatively related to pre-marital fertility but do not affect union formation. Local male unemployment, on the contrary, is a positive determinant of single motherhood and a negative factor in cohabitation decisions. The latter result is consistent with the Wilson hypothesis as it shows the existence of a direct effect of male joblessness on co-residential relationships.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 202.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:202

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Related research
Keywords: Fertility Marriage Competing Risks Harzard Models

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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  1. Lorraine Dearden, 1998. "Ability, families, education and earnings in Britain," IFS Working Papers W98/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lerman, Robert I, 1989. "Employment Opportunities of Young Men and Family Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 62-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Narendranathan, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1991. "Simple Methods for Testing for the Proportionality of Cause-Specific Hazards in Competing Risk Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(3), pages 331-40, August.
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Olsen, Randall J & Farkas, George, 1990. "The Effect of Economic Opportunity and Family Background on Adolescent Cohabitation and Childbearing among Low-Income Blacks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 341-62, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Mike Murphy, 2000. "Editorial: Cohabitation in Britain," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(2), pages 123-126. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ellwood, David T & Crane, Jonathan, 1990. "Family Change among Black Americans: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 65-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert J. Willis, 2000. "The Economics of Fatherhood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 378-382, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. I. Diamond & S. Clements & N. Stone & R. Ingham, 1999. "Spatial variation in teenage conceptions in south and west England," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(3), pages 273-289. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Paton, David, 2002. "The economics of family planning and underage conceptions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-225, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. John Ermisch & Marco Francesconi, 2000. "Cohabitation in Great Britain: not for long, but here to stay," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(2), pages 153-171. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mark R. Rosenzweig, 1999. "Welfare, Marital Prospects, and Nonmarital Childbearing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S3-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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