Credit shocks and cycles: a Bayesian calibration approach
AbstractThis paper asks how well a general equilibrium agency cost model describes the dynamic relationship between credit variables and the business cycle. A Bayesian VAR is used to obtain probability intervals for empirical correlations. The agency cost model is found to predict the leading, countercyclical correlation of spreads with output when shocks arising from the credit market contribute to output fluctuations. The contribution of technology shocks is held at conventional RBC levels. Sensitivity analysis shows that moderate prior calibration uncertainty leads to significant dispersion in predicted correlations. Most predictive uncertainty arises from a single parameter.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2006-W11.
Date of creation: 01 May 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter N. Ireland, 2002.
"Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?,"
NBER Working Papers
9390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- DeJong, David N & Ingram, Beth Fisher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005.
"Business and default cycles for credit risk,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
- L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
- David N. DeJong & Beth F. Ingram & Charles H. Whiteman, 2000. "Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 311-329.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:4:p:423-47 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000.
"The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Jo o, 2000. "Financial Intermediation And Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantitative Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 423-447, December.
- Li, Wenli & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G., 2003. "Credit market frictions and their direct effects on U.S. manufacturing fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 419-443, December.
- Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
- Canova, Fabio, 1995. "Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 477-501, May.
- Fabien Tripier & Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant, 2010.
"The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Friction,"
2010 Meeting Papers
76, Society for Economic Dynamics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.