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A Risk Assessment Model for Banks

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  • Dimitrios P Tsomocos
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to propose a model to assess risk for banks. Its main innovation is to incorporate endogenous interaction between banks, recognising that the actual risk to which an individual bank is exposed also depends on its interaction with other banks and other private sector agents. To this end, we develop a two-period general equilibrium model with three active heterogeneous banks, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. The setting of three heterogeneous banks allows us to study not only interaction between any two individual banks, but also their interaction with the rest of the banks in the banking system. We show that the model is analytically tractable and can be calibrated against real UK banking data and therefore can be implemented as a risk assessment tool for financial regulators and central banks. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy as well as credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2004-FE-11.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2004-fe-11

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Related research

Keywords: Financial Fragility; Financial Contagion; Systemic Risk; Banks; Monetary Policy; Regulatory Policy; Equilibrium Analysis;

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References

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  1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P.Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - Banks' choice of loan rating system," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe06, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  2. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe15, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  4. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, 01.
  5. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  6. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June.
  7. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  9. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," Bank of England working papers 175, Bank of England.
  10. Charles Goodhart, 1989. "Money, Information and Uncertainty: 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262071223, December.
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