Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Business Cycle Measurement in the Presence of Structural Change: International Evidence


Author Info

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig
Registered author(s):


    By generalizing Hamiltons model of the US business cycle to a three-regime Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, this paper analyzes regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth in the US, Japan and Europe over the last four decades. Empirical evidence is established for the presence of a structural break in the expansionary GDP growth for the US and Japan based on an output-employment MS vector equilibrium correction model, and a structural break in the context of a common European business cycle. For the United States the long expansions of recent years signify basic changes in the business cycles pattern. In the case of Japan we identify long episodes of rapid economic expansions (existing until the mid 1970s) and long economic recessions (as in the 1990s). In Europe we find after an episode of catching-up in the 1970s, convergence in the business cycle pattern which suggests the notion of a European business cycle. The multi-regime Markov-switching VARs proposed are profoundly checked for their economic content and statistical congruency, and are found to provide a sound statistical framework for a comprehensive analysis of the business cycle.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2000-W33.

    as in new window
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2000-w33

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
    Web page:
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Business cycles; Regime shifts; Markov switching; Structural change; Employment; Impulse-response analysis; Cointegration; European Union; Time series analysis;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:


    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Phillips, Kerk L., 1991. "A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 121-142, August.
    2. repec:wop:humbsf:1996-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Elias Aravantinos & Fotios Harmantzis, 2005. "A Dynamic Macroeconomic Model for the US Telecommunications Industry," Macroeconomics 0506004, EconWPA.


    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2000-w33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.