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Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures

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Author Info
Hans-Martin Krolzig
David Hendry

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Abstract

Disputes about econometric methodology partly reflect a lack of evidence on alternative approaches. We reconsider econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reductions, embodied in PcGets. Starting from a general congruent model, standard testing procedures eliminate statistically-insignificant variables, with diagnostic tests checking the validity of reductions, ensuring a congruent final selection. Since jointly selecting and diagnostic testing has eluded theoretical analysis, we study modelling strategies by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments show that PcGets recovers the DGP specification from a general model with size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 003.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:003

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Related research
Keywords: econometric methodology model selection encompassing data mining Monte Carlo experiments money demand consumption function

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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