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The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland’s Natural Experiment

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  • Thorvaldur Gylfason
  • Gylfi Zoega

Abstract

Abundant natural resources brought Iceland a systemically overvalued currency, with adverse effects on the secondary tradable sector. During 2003-2008 another national treasure, the sovereign’s AAA rating, was used to attract foreign capital, elevating the real exchange rate even further. The financial collapse in 2008 left the country with a large foreign debt without the possibility of rollovers in international capital markets. This offset some of the effect of the natural resources on the real exchange rate; in effect, this was the Dutch disease in reverse as witnessed, in particular, by a massive increase in the number of tourists in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2014. "The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland’s Natural Experiment," OxCarre Working Papers 138, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:138
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural resource curse; Dutch disease; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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