The Determinants of Extreme Commodity Prices
AbstractFat-tailed commodity price innovations are well-documented in the literature and long recognized as disruptive for consumers and producers, yet little is known about what factors drive such extreme events. Utilizing a wide range of factors from the economiccs and finance literature and quantile regression techniques, we shed light on this issue. Our models explain more variation in extreme than in median price innovations. Common global financial and demand factors account for a greater proportion of extreme aily spot price variations than do commodity-specific factors such as basis and open interest. Financialization of commodity markets, via significant and increasing co-variation of extreme spot price innovations with US equity market and trade-weighted US dollar returns, appears to be a major driver of extreme events in the 2000-09 period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 096.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
commodities price returns; extreme dependence; quantile regressions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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- Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández-Val & Alfred Galichon, 2010.
"Rearranging Edgeworth–Cornish–Fisher expansions,"
Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 419-435, February.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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