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Artificial Neural Networks and Aggregate Consumption Patterns in New Zealand

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  • Dan Farhat

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

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    Abstract

    This study uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to reproduce aggregate per-capita consumption patterns for the New Zealand economy. Results suggest that non-linear ANNs can outperform a linear econometric model at out-of-sample forecasting. The best ANN at matching in-sample data, however, is rarely the best predictor. To improve the accuracy of ANNs using only in-sample information, methods for combining heterogeneous ANN forecasts are explored. The frequency that an individual ANN is a top performer during in-sample training plays a beneficial role in consistently producing accurate out-of-sample patterns. Possible avenues for incorporating ANN structures into social simulation models of consumption are discussed.

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    File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1205.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1205.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2012
    Date of revision: Dec 2012
    Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1205

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    Keywords: International Migration; International Agreements; Regional Labour Markets;

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    1. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
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    7. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive microfoundations for emergent macroeconomics," Department of Economics Working Papers 0802, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
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    9. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
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    12. Mirowski, Philip, 2007. "Markets come to bits: Evolution, computation and markomata in economic science," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 209-242, June.
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