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Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity

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  • Nelson C. Mark

    ()

  • Yangru Wu

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ohio State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 014.

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Date of creation: Nov 1996
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Handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:014

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References

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  1. Jeffrey Frankel & Menzie Chinn, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests For a Cross- Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cheng, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Exchange rate risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-194, April.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
  4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  5. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Canova, Fabio & Ito, Takatoshi, 1991. "The Time-Series Properties of the Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 125-42, April-Jun.
  8. Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-43, July.
  9. Chen, Jian & Mark, Nelson C, 1996. "Alternative Long-Horizon Exchange-Rate Predictors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 229-50, October.
  10. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  11. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  13. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Trends in Excess Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," Working Papers 92-32, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1992. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behaviour in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 869-93, July.
  19. Blake LeBaron, . "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearities in Foreign Exchange?," Working papers _005, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
  20. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Wohar, Mark E, 1996. "The Road Less Travelled: Institutional Aspects of Data and Their Influence on Empirical Estimates with an Application to Tests of Forward Rate Unbiasedness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 26-38, January.
  21. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
  22. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32.
  23. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  24. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  26. Zietz, Joachim, 1995. "Some Evidence on the Efficiency of the Forward Market for Foreign Exchange from Monte-Carlo Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1471-87, November.
  27. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  28. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
  29. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  30. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
  31. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  32. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1994. "The Forward Premium Anamoly: Three Examples in Search of a Solution," GSIA Working Papers 7, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  34. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Abdul RASHID, 2009. "Testing The Modified-Combined Ppp And Uip Hypothesis In South Asian Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  2. Rashid, Abdul & Husain, Fazal, 2012. "On the modeling of exchange rate: some evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 47547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Guy Meredith & Yue Ma, 2002. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited," IMF Working Papers 02/28, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2014. "Can Monetary Policy Cause the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle?," Discussion Paper Series 1404, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  5. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.

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