IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ost/wpaper/294.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bigger Fish in Small Pond : The Interaction between Foreigners' Trading and Emerging Stock Market Returns under the Microscope

Author

Listed:
  • Numan Ülkü

    (Central European University Business School)

  • Enzo Weber

    (University of Regensburg, Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies))

Abstract

This paper provides the first study of foreign investors’ trading in a sizeable European emerging stock market, using a combination of daily and monthly complete data col-lected at the destination. It also introduces the structural conditional correlation (SCC) methodology to identify the contemporaneous interaction between foreign flows and returns. We show that global emerging market returns are an additional driver of foreign flows after controlling for global developed market returns. Foreigners do negative (positive)-feedback-trade with respect to local returns at the monthly (daily) frequency. SCC methodology shows that the standard assumption in the literature, that flows cause returns contemporaneously but not vice versa, is not justified, even at the daily fre-quency, making price impact estimates reported in previous literature questionable

Suggested Citation

  • Numan Ülkü & Enzo Weber, 2011. "Bigger Fish in Small Pond : The Interaction between Foreigners' Trading and Emerging Stock Market Returns under the Microscope," Working Papers 294, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    • Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.oei-dokumente.de/publikationen/wp/wp-294.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    2. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
    3. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.
    4. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    6. Sun, Hang & Bos, Jaap W.B. & Li, Zhuo, 2017. "In the Nick of Time: A Heteroskedastic SVAR Model and Its Application to the Crude Oil Futures Market," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    8. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    9. Helmut Lütkepohl & Thore Schlaak, 2018. "Choosing Between Different Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 715-735, August.
    10. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2015. "Firms' risk endogenous to strategic management choices," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2015, Bank of Finland.
    11. Nathan Foley‐Fisher & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2013. "U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 967-975, August.
    12. Arezki,Rabah & Cho,Caleb Sungwoo & Ha Nguyen & Pham,Anh, 2022. "Corporate Debt and Stock Returns : Evidence from U.S. Firms during the 2020 Oil Crash," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10079, The World Bank.
    13. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    14. Klein, Roger & Vella, Francis, 2010. "Estimating a class of triangular simultaneous equations models without exclusion restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 154-164, February.
    15. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kastner, Gregor, 2019. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 98-115.
    17. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    18. Alain Guay, 2020. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Higher Unconditional Moments," Working Papers 20-19, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    19. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    20. Mr. Piti Disyatat & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2001. "The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Working Papers 2001/111, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kseniia Gatskova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.