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Prospects for Trade in Intermediates and Trade in Services: What Does the Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade Tell Us?

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  • Haruka Yane

    (Graduate student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

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    Abstract

    This study uses product-level international bilateral trade panel data for the period 1995 to 2009, covering 40 countries from the recently released World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Constructing this dataset into a standard gravity model, this paper aims to compare the magnitude of coefficients across two pairs of equations with different dependent variables: trade in intermediates in comparison with trade in final products, and total trade in goods as opposed to total trade in services. So as to investigate these differences further, this study also analyzes the models by sector. This paper applies the sample selection model in order to account for the zero trade flows. Estimation results confirm that trading partners in East Asia engage much more in both trade in intermediate inputs and assembled final products, especially the former, compared to EU and NAFTA blocs. Trade in services presents remarkable resilience to the current financial crisis. Intermediate services trade, in particular, is affected less by trade costs and market size. By liberalizing trade and increasing economic freedom, there will be a highly significant, positive effect on nearly all kinds of trade flows.

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    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2013/DP2013E002.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 13E002.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:13e002

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    Keywords: trade in intermediates; services trade; gravity model;

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio LopezdeSilanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2000. "The Regulation of Entry," NBER Working Papers 7892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_03-1.
    12. Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Vertical Trade, Trade Costs and FDI," OECD Trade Policy Papers 89, OECD Publishing.
    13. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
    14. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    15. Fukao, Kyoji & Ito, Keiko, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Service Trade: The Case of Japan," Discussion Paper Series a394, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Sébastien Miroudot & Rainer Lanz & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Trade in Intermediate Goods and Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 93, OECD Publishing.
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