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Is a common currency area feasible for East Asia? A multivariate structural VAR approach

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  • Hsiufen Hsu

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP),Osaka University)

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    Abstract

    In this paper the feasibility of forming a common currency area in East Asia is investigated. A three-variable SVAR model is employed to identify three types of shocks, i.e. global, regional, and domestic shocks. The empirical results do not provide strong support for forming a common currency area in this region because the symmetric "prevalent shock" cannot be defined. However, it is found that since the late 1990s the importance of asymmetric domestic shocks has declined while that of symmetric global and regional shocks has increased. Furthermore, East Asia is as symmetric as the Euro Area in terms of the correlation of global and regional shocks. The findings suggest that most East Asian economies have become symmetric in terms of economic shocks, and imply that a common currency area may become viable through deepening regional integration.

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    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2009/DP2009E006.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 09E006.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:09e006

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    Keywords: Common currency area; Monetary integration; OCA; SVAR; East Asia;

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    1. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2006. "Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-94, March.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Benassy-Quere, Agnes, 1999. "Optimal Pegs for East Asian Currencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 44-60, March.
    5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2005. "Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation," Working Paper Series 0567, European Central Bank.
    6. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
    7. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Kwack, Sung Yeung, 2004. "An optimum currency area in East Asia: feasibility, coordination, and leadership role," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 153-169, February.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Introduction: Monetary and Economic Integration in the East Asian Region," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1643-1647, December.
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