Sumie Sato (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) Mototsugu Fukushige () (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka university)
Abstract
This paper attempts to forecast the changes in the Kansai-Areafs import and export when the East Asia Free Trade Agreements (FTA) is concluded among several countries in East and South-East Asia. We simulate the changes in the Kansai-Areafs trade in the following manner. First, we survey the simulation studies that forecast the changed in Japanfs national level trades by industries under the FTA. Second, we estimate a link model between the Japanfs national level and Kansai-Areafs import and export by commodities. Finally, we forecast the changes in the Kansai-Areafs import and export by extrapolating the estimated link models with the changes in the national level import and export. The result implies that the FTA promotes the Kansai-Areafs trade totally and expands the regional trade surplus.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number
07-41.
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