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Race Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States

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  • Joe A. Stone
  • JoAnnaGray

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

Abstract

We employ newly developed methods to disentangle age, period and cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFRs) from 1972 to 2002 for black and white women aged 20-44 in the United States. We focus on three cohort factors: family structure, school enrollment, and the sex ratio. For both blacks and whites, cohorts with less traditional family structures have higher NFRs. Other results differ by race. The impact of school enrollment on NFRs is significantly negative for whites, but significantly positive for blacks. The impact of sex ratio is significantly negative for blacks, but insignificant for whites. If black women and white women had cohort characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women would decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly. Classification-JEL: JEL Categories: J12, J13, I38

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2008-5.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2008-5

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Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285
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Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: cohort marriage; birth rates; nonmarital fertility; education; welfare;

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References

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  1. Marcia Carlson & Sara Mclanahan & Paula England, 2004. "Union formation in fragile families," Demography, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 237-261, May.
  2. Jo Anna Gray & Jean Stockard & Joe Stone, 2004. "A Tale of Two Shares: The Relationship between the "Illegitimacy" Ratio and the Marriage Share," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jun 2004.
  3. Bennett, N.G. & Bloom, D.E. & Craig, P.H., 1989. "The Divergence Of Black And White Marriage Patterns," Discussion Papers 1989_22, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. John Fitzgerald & David Ribar, 2004. "Welfare reform and female headship," Demography, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 189-212, May.
  5. repec:fth:coluec:443 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Arnstein Aassve, 2003. "The impact of economic resources on premarital childbearing and subsequent marriage among young American women," Demography, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 105-126, February.
  7. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Jane Waldfogel, 2000. "Understanding Young Women's Marriage Decisions: The Role of Labor and Marriage Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 7510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Thomas DeLeire & Ariel Kalil, 2001. "Good Things Come in Threes: Single-parent Multigenerational Family Structure and Adolescent Adjustment," JCPR Working Papers 242, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  9. Robert A. Moffitt, 2000. "Welfare Benefits and Female Headship in U.S. Time Series," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 373-377, May.
  10. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes & Madeline Zavodny, 2004. "The Impact of Welfare Reform on Marriage and Divorce," Working Papers 110, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  11. Scott South & Kim Lloyd, 1992. "Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 247-264, May.
  12. Fred Pampel, 1996. "Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: A contingent relationship," Demography, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 341-355, August.
  13. Jo Anna Gray & Jean Stockard & Joe Stone, 2004. "The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Fertility Choices or Marriage Behavior?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-17, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Nov 2005.
  14. Joan Kahn & Kay Anderson, 1992. "Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-57, February.
  15. Karin Brewster, 1994. "Neighborhood context and the transition to sexual activity among young black women," Demography, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 603-614, November.
  16. Robert J. Willis, 1999. "A Theory of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S33-S64, December.
  17. Greg Duncan & Saul Hoffman, 1990. "Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls," Demography, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 519-535, November.
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