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Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account

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Author Info
Ronald B. Davies () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Paul Shea () (University of Oregon Economics Department)

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Abstract

This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model of international trade and borrowing that suppresses all previous sources of current account dynamics. Under rational expectations, international debt follows a random walk. Under adaptive learning however, international debt behaves like either a stationary or an explosive process. Whether debt converges or diverges depends on the specific learning algorithm that agents employ. When debt diverges, a financial crisis eventually occurs to ensure that the modelÂ’s transversality condition holds. Such a financial crisis causes an abrupt decrease in the debtor countryÂ’s consumption and utility.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2006-15.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2003
Date of revision: 10 Jun 2003
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2006-15

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Related research
Keywords: current account; international debt movements; expectations; adaptive learning.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marc-Andre Letendre, 2000. "Linear Approximation Methods and International Real Business Cycles with Incomplete Asset Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1539, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-33, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Adaptive expectations coordination in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-140, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1969. "Optimal Policies and Immiserizing Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 967-70, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December. [Downloadable!]
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  9. George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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