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Nowcasting Patent Indicators

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  • Hélène Dernis
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    Abstract

    Indicators based on patents provide a good measure of the innovative performance and technology outputs of countries. However, because of legal rules imposed by the patent application process, information on patents is generally publicly disclosed after 18 months. Patent indicators are consequently faced with a timeliness issue, which can extend to more than five years depending on the computational method used to develop indicators. This study aims at designing simple but robust methods that would enable to "nowcast" patent indicators - forecast the present (or the recent past) - in order to mitigate the timeliness issue. The nowcasting exercise is conducted here on two separate sets of patent indicators: the number of patents applied to the European Patent Office (EPO) and the number of Triadic Patent Families (patents taken at the EPO, the Japan Patent Office (JPO) and the United States Patent and Trademarks Office (USPTO)). Portion of patent filings at the EPO were made under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT). The nowcasting method developed in the present document is based on estimates of the transfer rate of patents filed under PCT into the EPO regional phase, given that information on PCT patents at international phase is disclosed before reaching the regional/national phase. This method provides robust estimates up to year t-2 (instead of year t-4), even though patenting activity of small patenting countries or emerging economies are difficult to predict, in terms of both level and growth... Prévisions des indicateurs brevets (nowcast) Les indicateurs de brevets proposent une bonne mesure de la performance des pays dans les activités d'innovation et de leurs productions technologiques. Cependant, les règles légales liées aux procédures de dépôt de brevets impliquent des délais de 18 mois avant la révélation publique du contenu des brevets. Les indicateurs brevets font par conséquent face à des problèmes de disponibilité pour les années les plus récentes. La disponibilité peut être décalée à plus de cinq ans selon les méthodes utilisées pour compiler les indicateurs. Cette étude vise à développer des méthodes d'estimations simples et néanmoins robustes, pour évaluer le présent ou le passé récent (« nowcast »), afin de pallier au problème de disponibilité des dernières années. Dans ce document, le travail d'estimation est mené sur deux ensembles d'indicateurs distincts : le nombre de demandes de brevets déposées auprès de l'Office européen des brevets (OEB) et le nombre de Familles de brevets « triadiques » (brevets pris à l'OEB, au Japan Patent Office (JPO) et à l'United States Patent and Trademarks Office (USPTO)). Une partie des demandes de brevets auprès de l'OEB se fait via le Traité de coopération en matière de brevets (PCT). La méthode de prévision mise en place ici est basée sur les taux de transfert des demandes de brevet PCT dans la phase régionale à l'OEB, le contenu des brevets PCT étant en effet rendu public lorsqu'ils sont encore en phase internationale. Cette méthode fournit alors des estimations robustes jusque l'année t-2 (au lieu de t-4). Néanmoins, l'activité récente des pays déposant un petit nombre de brevets et des économies émergentes reste difficile à prévoir, que ce soit en terme de volume comme en terme de croissance...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/055888673307
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers with number 2007/3.

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    Date of creation: 05 Oct 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2007/3-en

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    Cited by:
    1. de Rassenfosse, Gaétan & Dernis, Hélène & Guellec, Dominique & Picci, Lucio & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2013. "The worldwide count of priority patents: A new indicator of inventive activity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 720-737.

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