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Unconventional monetary policy and productivity: Evidence on the risk-seeking channel from US corporate bond markets

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Albrizio
  • Marina Conesa
  • Dennis Dlugosch
  • Christina Timiliotis

Abstract

We examine the relationship between lax monetary policy, access to high-yield bond markets and productivity in the US between 2008 and 2016. Using monetary policy surprises, obtained from changes in interest rates futures in narrow windows around FOMC announcements, we isolate the increased access to high-yield bond markets relative to investment-grade bond markets that is due to unconventional monetary policy (UMP). We find that through the risk-taking channel, UMP has increased investors’ appetite for high-yield US corporate bonds, thereby increasing access to high-yield bond markets for firms with a higher risk profile. Since the relationship between credit ratings and firm-level productivity is U-shaped, the aggregate effect on productivity is a priori unclear. Turning to the real economy, we thus analyse whether this additional access to finance had an effect on aggregate productivity by altering the reallocation of resources across firms. Our results show that unconventional monetary policy induced less investment in tangible capital by high-productive firms. However, before drawing conclusions on the net effects of UMP on aggregate productivity, we discuss a number of issues that this paper could not deal with due to data limitations, including prominently whether this apparent misallocation may have been offset by a shift in the composition of investments towards more intangible investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Albrizio & Marina Conesa & Dennis Dlugosch & Christina Timiliotis, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and productivity: Evidence on the risk-seeking channel from US corporate bond markets," OECD Productivity Working Papers 17, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaac:17-en
    DOI: 10.1787/06d2cce0-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Linzert, Tobias & Tapking, Jens & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Assessing the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the ECB’s monetary policy instruments since 2014," Occasional Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    2. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond markets; capital reallocation; productivity; Unconventional monetary policy; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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