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Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report

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Author Info

  • Åsa Johansson
  • Yvan Guillemette
  • Fabrice Murtin
  • David Turner
  • Giuseppe Nicoletti
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Guillaume Bousquet
  • Francesca Spinelli

Abstract

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. Un regard vers 2060 : Perspectives de croissance globale à long terme Cette étude présente les résultats d’un nouveau modèle de projection de la croissance économique des pays de l’OCDE et des pays majeurs hors-OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans ainsi que des déséquilibres qui apparaissent. Un scénario de référence, qui comprend des réformes structurelles graduelles et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios de dette/PIB, est comparé à des scénarios alternatifs qui incluent des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l’OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais la différence s’amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l’économie mondiale. En absence de refonte ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres mondiaux dangereux pour la croissance émergeront. Cependant, une rationalisation plus prononcée des finances publiques combinée à des réformes structurelles profondes pourrait à la fois faire augmenter les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres mondiaux.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economic Policy Papers with number 3.

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Date of creation: 09 Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaab:3-en

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Keywords: human capital; productivity; saving; global imbalances; fiscal and structural policy; conditional convergence; growth; long-term projections; current accounts; capital humain; politiques fiscales et structurelles; convergence conditionnelle; épargne; déséquilibres mondiaux; croissance; productivité; projections à long terme; compte courant;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Orman, Cüneyt, 2013. "The Road to Sustainable Growth in Emerging Markets: The Role of Structural and Monetary Policies in Turkey," MPRA Paper 44730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Balázs Égert & Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2013. "Challenges to Sustain Poland's Growth Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1054, OECD Publishing.

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