Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Understanding Russian Regions' Economic Performance during Periods of Decline and Growth: An Extreme-bound Analysis Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rudiger Ahrend

Abstract

This article uses “extreme-bound”-type analysis to revisit the determinants behind widely differing economic growth in Russian regions. Using data of 77 regions for 1993-2004, it separately examines the growth drivers for the phase of economic decline up to 1998, and for the period of strong growth afterwards. Looking at forty variables considered to be potentially related to growth, it determines, for each of the two periods, the ones robustly associated with Russian economic performance. Among the variables considered are proxies of politico-institutional features, indicators of economic reform, and measurements of both economic and non-economic initial conditions. The main findings, based on close to one million regressions, are as follows: during the period of economic decline up to 1998, differences in Russian regional growth were almost entirely driven by initial conditions, with resource and human capital endowments, industrial structure, and geographical location playing the dominant roles. However, since the 1998 crisis, the importance of initial conditions has declined significantly, and is now basically reduced to hydrocarbon wealth and advantageous geographical location. More reform-oriented policies, as well as better regional leadership are found to have come to make a significant difference. These results point to determinants of economic performance in periods of actual economic decline being quite different from those in “normal” times of economic growth. Comprendre la performance économique des régions russes pendant les périodes de déclin et de croissance : Une approche par analyse de bornes extrêmes Cet article adopte une approche par « analyse de bornes extrêmes » pour explorer les déterminants d’une croissance économique très inégale entre les régions russes. En utilisant des données couvrant 77 régions de 1993 à 2004, les déterminants de la croissance sont examinés pour la période de depression économique allant jusqu’à 1998, ainsi que pour la période d’expansion forte qui l’a suivie. Parmi 40 variables potentiellement importantes pour la croissance, sont déterminées, pour chacune des deux périodes, les variables associées de façon robuste à la performance économique russe. Les variables examinées incluent des aspects politico-institutionnels, des indicateurs des reformes économiques, ainsi que les conditions initiales économiques et non-économiques de ces régions. Les résultats principaux, dérivant d’un nombre de régressions atteignant presque un million, sont les suivants: pendant la période de stagnation se déroulant jusqu’en 1998, les différences de croissance entre régions sont expliquées presque entièrement par les conditions initiales, en termes de ressources naturelles, de capital humain, de structure industrielle, et de situation géographique. Toutefois, depuis la crise de 1998, l’influence de ces dernières a considérablement diminué, et seules la richesse pétrolière et une situation géographique avantageuse sont demeurées importantes. Une politique de réformes économiques, ainsi que la plus grande qualité des dirigeants régionaux, ont commencé à avoir un impact important. Ces résultats suggèrent que les facteurs de la croissance économique en période de déclin sont différents de ceux prévalant pendant les périodes “normales” de croissance positive.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/235866010670
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 644.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:644-en

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.oecd.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: economic growth; transition; natural resources; political economy; Russia; economic reform; Russie; économie politique; ressources naturelles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  2. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Elisabetta Falcetti & Martin Raiser & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition," Working Papers 55, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  4. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres & Margit Molnár, 2008. "The contribution of economic geography to GDP per capita," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-37.
  5. Guido Friebel & Sergei Guriev, 2000. "Should I Stay or Can I Go? Worker Attachment in Russia," Working Papers w0008, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  6. Dutz, Mark A. & Hayri, Aydin, 2000. "Does more intense competition lead to higher growth?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2320, The World Bank.
  7. Djankov, Simeon & Murrell, Peter, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 3319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Bergsman, Joel & Broadman, Harry G. & Drebentsov, Vladimir, 2000. "Improving Russia's policy on foreign direct investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2329, The World Bank.
  9. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
  10. Carlin, Wendy & Schaffer, Mark E & Seabright, Paul, 2004. "A Minimum of Rivalry: Evidence from Transition Economies on the Importance of Competition for Innovation and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N., 2003. "Policy reform and growth in post-Soviet Russia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 337-352, April.
  13. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 351-71, September.
  14. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  17. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  18. Laura Solanko, 2003. "An empirical note on growth and convergence across Russian regions," Macroeconomics 0308005, EconWPA.
  19. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  20. Roxana Radulescu & David Barlow, 2002. "The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(3), pages 719-745, November.
  21. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
  22. Konings, Jozef & Lehmann, Hartmut & Schaffer, Mark E., 1996. "Job creation and job destruction in a transition economy: Ownership, firm size, and gross job flows in Polish manufacturing 1988-1991," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 299-317, October.
  23. Easterly, William, 1999. "The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 423-438, December.
  24. Jenny Minier, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Robustness in Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 388-392, May.
  25. John Bennett & Saul Estrin & James Maw & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Privatisation Methods and Economic Growth in Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004.105, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  26. repec:reg:wpaper:398 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N., 1999. "Russia's internal border," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 633-649, September.
  28. Rudiger Ahrend & William Tompson, 2005. "Fifteen Years of Economic Reform in Russia: What has been Achieved? What Remains to be Done?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 430, OECD Publishing.
  29. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Miriam Frey & Carmen Wieslhuber & Daniel Frey, 2013. "Do Natural Resources Define Convergence Clubs? Empirical Evidence from the Kazakh Regions," Working Papers 329, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  2. Alisher Akhmedjonov & Irina N. Il’ina & Carol S. Leonard & Zafar Nazarov & Evgenij E. Plisetskij & Elena S. Vakulenko, 2013. "Russia’s regions: governance and Well-being, 2000-2008," HSE Working papers WP BRP 42/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  3. Lev Freinkman & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Ulrich Thießen, 2009. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Equalization: Has Russian Style Improved?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 912, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Irina N. Ilina & Carol S. Leonard & Evgenij E. Plisetskij, 2014. "Russian Regional Resilience: Finance, Cooperation And Resource Abundance (A Case Study Of Khanty-Mansiysk)," HSE Working papers WP BRP 15/PA/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  5. Alexander Plekhanov & Asel Isakova, 2011. "Region-specific constraints to doing business: evidence from Russia," Working Papers 125, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  6. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Suganuma, Keiko, 2014. "Foregign Direct Investment and Regional Economic Growth in Russia: An Econometric Assessment," RRC Working Paper Series 44, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  7. Yakovlev, Andrei, 2011. "State-business relations in Russia in the 2000s: From the capture model to a variety of exchange models?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Eller, Markus & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fungácová , Zuzana, 2013. "Fiscal policy and regional output volatility: Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:644-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.