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Estimating a Supply Block for Poland

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  • Rafal Kierzenkowski
  • Patrice Ollivaud
  • Franck Sédillot
  • Philippe Briard

Abstract

The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with the OECD approach. The structural unemployment rate is derived from a Phillips-curve equation and, along with working age population, is combined with filter-based estimates of trend labour productivity, participation rates and hours worked per employee to generate measures of potential output. The performance of the model in capturing price pressures underlying the growth trajectory of the Polish economy is assessed, and measures of cyclically-adjusted general government net lending are provided. Based on the OECD autumn 2007 projections for 2008 and 2009, out-of-sample simulations derived from the Phillips-curve model suggest that CPI inflation is likely to continue to trend upward, exceeding the central bank?s inflation target by a wide margin. Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne Le bloc d'offre et les mesures associées d'écarts de production et de taux de chômage jouent un rôle de premier plan dans l'analyse des conditions conjoncturelles à court terme et des déterminants de la croissance à long terme faite par l'OCDE. Afin de permettre de tels diagnostics pour la Pologne, cette étude développe un bloc d'offre détaillé selon l'approche de l'OCDE. Le taux de chômage structurel est déduit à partir d'une équation de type Phillips et, conjointement avec la population en âge de travailler, est combiné à des estimations tendancielles de productivité du travail, de taux de participation et des heures travaillées par employé pour donner lieu à une mesure du niveau de production potentiel. La performance du modèle pour rendre compte des pressions de prix sous-jacentes à la trajectoire de croissance de l'économie polonaise est évaluée, et les mesures du déficit budgétaire ajusté du cycle sont fournies. Sur la base des projections de l'OCDE pour les années 2008 et 2009 réalisées à l'automne 2007, des simulations hors échantillon déduites à partir du modèle de la courbe de Phillips mettent en évidence que, selon toute vraisemblance, l'inflation IPC poursuivra sa tendance haussière, dépassant la cible d'inflation de la banque centrale de façon significative.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/243218687811
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 601.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:601-en

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Keywords: OECD; transition economies; production function; potential output; medium-term projections; Poland; structural budget deficit; macroeconomic modelling; projections de moyen terme; déficit budgétaire structurel; Pologne; modélisation macroéconomique; fonction de production; production potentielle; économie en transition; OCDE;

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