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Factors Behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Rudiger Ahrend
  • Pietro Catte
  • Robert Price

Abstract

Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and . especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors. portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, .petro-dollar. recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The paper finds that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist. Éléments à l'origine de la faiblesse des taux d'intérêt à long terme Au cours des années récentes les rendements des obligations à long terme ont été faibles tant en termes nominaux qu’effectifs. Par rapport aux cycles économiques antérieurs, ils ont réagi différemment aux changements de politique monétaire et budgétaire, notamment aux États-Unis. Cet article examine plusieurs explications potentielles de ces comportements comme les effets d’un changement de cadre de la politique monétaire sur l’inflation et les anticipations de taux d’intérêt; l’évolution des soldes ex ante d’épargne et d’investissement et les changements de préférence dans les placements des investisseurs (y compris l’accumulation des réserves officielles, le recyclage des « pétrodollars » et la demande des fonds de pension pour des obligations à maturité longue). L’article conclut qu’il est improbable qu’une seule explication puisse rendre compte du niveau et du profil des rendements obligataires au cours des dernières années. Toutefois, un élément clef a été la réduction de la prime de risque, accompagnée par des changements dans les anticipations de taux d’intérêt à court terme. Néanmoins, bien que les rendements des obligations aient commencé à remonter au début de l’année 2006, il est peu vraisemblable qu’ils atteignent les niveaux enregistrés dans les années 1980 et au début des années 1990, dans la mesure où plusieurs des facteurs qui ont entraîné leur déclin sont amenés à perdurer.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Ahrend & Pietro Catte & Robert Price, 2006. "Factors Behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 490, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:490-en
    DOI: 10.1787/761527811285
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karlis Vilerts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Bond Yields on Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 2016/05, Latvijas Banka.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michele Battisti & Tamara Fioroni & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2014. "World Interest Rates, Inequality and Growth: an Empirical Analysis of the Galor-Zeira Model," Discussion Papers 2014/184, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2010. "World real interest rates: a global savings and investment perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2801-2816.
    5. Ahrend, Rudiger, 2010. "Monetary ease: A factor behind financial crises? Some evidence from OECD countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-30.
    6. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    7. Clerc, L., 2007. "Understanding Asset Prices: Determinants and Policy Implications," Working papers 168, Banque de France.
    8. Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167181-1671, September.
    9. Hermann Remsperger & Markus Taube & Berend Diekmann & Carsten Hermann-Pillath & Rüdiger Ahrend, 2007. "The consequences of China's growing influence on the world economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(13), pages 03-19, July.
    10. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    accumulation des réserves; anticipation d'inflation; bond spread; bond yield; capital flows; compte courant; credibility; crédibilité; current account; financial markets; flux de capitaux; fonds de pension; inflation expectation; interest rate; marchés financiers; monetary policy; neutral rate; pension fund; petro-dollar; politique monétaire; portfolio preferences; prime de risque; prime à terme; préférences en matière de placements; pétrodollar; rendement des obligations; reserve accumulation; risk premia; saving-investment balance; solde d'épargne et d'investissement; spread de crédit; taux d'intérêt; taux neutre; term premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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