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Modelling Import Responsiveness for OECD Manufactures Trade

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  • Mara Meacci
  • David Turner
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    Abstract

    The degree of integration and openness of OECD economies has consistently increased throughout most of the past three decades. By limiting the influence of non-economic factors, and reducing heterogeneity in economic systems, increased integration and openness enhance the emergence of common patterns of adjustment to economic shocks among countries. This paper focuses on the demand and price elasticity of manufacturing import volumes in OECD countries, examining if the long-run adjustment of the volume of manufacturing imports to demand and price shocks is similar across countries. The results indicate that the percentage long-run adjustment of manufacturing import volumes to a demand shock is similar across the majority of OECD countries. The adjustment of manufacturing import volumes to relative price shocks are more heterogeneous, although it is possible to identify clusters of countries showing similar responses. The estimated short and long-run demand elasticities are ... Modéliser la réaction des importations dans le commerce manufacturier des pays de l'OCDE L’intégration et l’ouverture des économies de l’OCDE se sont régulièrement accrues au cours des trois dernières decennies. En limitant l’influence des facteurs non économiques et en réduisant l’hétérogénéité des systèmes économiques, une intégration et une ouverture plus importantes accentuent la similarité entre les pays dans leurs ajustements aux chocs économiques. Cet article estime les élasticites prix et demande des volumes d’importation de biens manufacturiers dans les pays de l’OCDE et analyse la similarité entre pays de l’ajustement des importations de biens manufacturiers à des chocs de demande et de prix. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’ajustement de long terme des volumes d’importations manufacturières à un choc de demande est de même ampleur dans la majorité des pays de l’OCDE. Les ajustements des volumes d’importations manufacturieres à des chocs de prix relatifs sont plus hétérogènes, même s’il est possible d’identifier des groupes de pays présentant des réponses ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/304013015652
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 311.

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    Date of creation: 25 Oct 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:311-en

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting; simulation; imports; elasticities; importations parallèles; élasticités; prévisions; simulation;

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    Cited by:
    1. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Thorvardur T. Ólafsson & Ásgerdur Ó. Pétursdóttir & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Rósa Sveinsdóttir, 2009. "QMM. A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp41, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

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