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Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries

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  • Ketil Hviding
  • Marcel Mérette
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    Abstract

    Using overlapping generations (OLG) models calibrated on seven OECD countries -- the United States, Japan, France, Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom and Sweden -- the authors investigate the macroeconomic impact of possible pension reform strategies as populations age. Simulations include a reduction in the level of pensions, phased abolition of PAYG schemes and general fiscal consolidation. By raising the national saving rate future GDP levels are higher, but not enough to offset the affects of ageing. A rise in the retirement age has larger effects, but implies significant loss of leisure time ... En utilisant des modèles à générations imbriquées pour sept pays de l'OCDE -- Etats-Unis, Japon, France, Canada, Italie, Royaume-Uni et Suède -- les auteurs analysent les effets macro-économiques des différentes réformes de systèmes des pensions dans un contexte de vieillissement de la population. Les simulations considèrent une réduction des niveaux de pensions, une élimination graduelle des systèmes à répartition et une réduction généralisée des dépenses publiques. Dans la mesure où ces réformes augmentent les taux d'épargne, les niveaux futurs du PIB seront plus élevés, mais pas suffisamment pour compenser les effets du vieillissement de la population. Le recul de l'âge officiel de la retraite aurait un effet plus important, mais aussi des implications négatives sur le temps disponible pour les loisirs ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/638376177076
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 201.

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    Date of creation: 23 Jun 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:201-en

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    Cited by:
    1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & De la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic, 2002. "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2093-2113, October.
    2. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    3. Verbic, Miroslav, 2007. "Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework," MPRA Paper 10350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Welfare systems, ageing and work: an OECD perspective," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(212), pages 3-29.
    5. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2005. "Aging, Myopia, and the Pay-As-You-Go Public Pension Systems of the G7: A Bright Future?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 449-470, 08.
    6. Koka, Katerina & Kosempel, Stephen, 2014. "A life-cycle analysis of ending mandatory retirement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 57-66.
    7. Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Welfare, invecchiamento della popolazione e lavoro: una prospettiva OCSE," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 53(209), pages 55-85.
    8. Medeiros, João, 2000. "Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.
    10. Garry Young, 2002. "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England.

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