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La faisabilité politique de l'ajustement dans les pays africains

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  • Christian Morrisson
  • Jean-Dominique Lafay
  • Sébastien Dessus
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    Abstract

    Il est désormais admis qu'on ne peut pas mettre au point un programme d'ajustement sans tenir compte des réactions politiques qu'il peut susciter. Les expériences malheureuses de pays où les troubles provoqués par des mesures de stabilisation ont entraîné des dizaines, voire des centaines de morts, en ont convaincu tous les responsables politiques. Ceci a conduit à construire un modèle politico-économique adapté aux pays en développement. On a ensuite appliqué ce modèle à 23 pays africains sur la période 1980-1990. Les résultats des estimations s'avèrent satisfaisantes : l'ensemble des variables endogènes, qu'elles soient économiques ou politiques, peuvent être expliquées de façon précise et les coefficients obtenus prouvent qu'il existe des interactions importantes entre la sphère politique et la sphère économique. Il est assuré par exemple que les troubles résultent en partie des mesures de stabilisation. A partir d'une simulation de référence, on a ensuite estimé les ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/548847573280
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 88.

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    Date of creation: Nov 1993
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:88-fr

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