Changing Comparative Advantage in Thai Agriculture
Abstract
Two key developments affected Thai agriculture in the last decade: the precipitous decline (until 1988) in world prices for the major agricultural items exported by Thailand, and the decline in the amount of cultivable land available for each agricultural worker. During this same period the Thai economy has experienced a slowdown in the rate of growth of real GDP and an increase in the extent of poverty, the first time this has happened since statistics on poverty became available in 1963. As these economy-wide developments and the adverse changes specific to agriculture coincided, it came to be widely believed that the one is the cause of the other. This paper sets out to examine the validity of this belief, using an applied general equilibrium model (the THAM-2). The simulations indicate that the effect of the agriculture-associated changes on the Thai economy can be quite substantial. Liberalization of rice alone will increase real GDP by 2 to 3 per cent. Had the world ... Au cours de la dernière décennie, deux faits majeurs ont frappé l'agriculture thaïlandaise : d'abord, la chute brutale (jusqu'en 1988) des prix mondiaux qui a touché les principaux produits agricoles exportés par la Thaïlande, ensuite, la diminution de la surface des terres arables par exploitant agricole. Pendant cette période, l'économie thaïlandaise a subi un ralentissement du taux de croissance du PNB réel et une augmentation du niveau de pauvreté, premier cas du genre depuis 1963, année où les statistiques sur la pauvreté devinrent disponibles. La coïncidence de ces deux faits économiques importants et leur impact négatif sur l'agriculture a fait croire que l'un était responsable de l'autre. Ce document examine la validité de cette conviction en utilisant un modèle appliqué d'équilibre général, (le THAM-2). Les simulations démontrent que les effets conjugués des changements survenus dans le secteur de l'agriculture ont profondément marqué l'économie ...Download Info
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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 35.Length:
Date of creation: Mar 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:35-en
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