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Herding in Aid Allocation

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  • Emmanuel Frot
  • Javier Santiso

Abstract

Aid ineffectiveness, fragmentation, and volatility have already been highlighted by scholars and OECD studies. Far fewer studies have been devoted to another problem of capital flows: herding behaviour. Building upon a methodology applied to financial markets, where herding is a common feature, this article attempts to measure herding behaviour in the allocation of foreign aid, proposing different indexes that try to capture the specific features of aid allocation. Of course, herding can also be beneficial. When a country faces an earthquake, a tsunami, or any humanitarian disaster, the rush of donors is a positive factor. Excluding such cases of beneficial herding, we attempt to focus on pure herding behaviour, creating pendulum swing effects comparable to those in financial markets. . Our different indexes all detect donor herding, its exact size depending on the measure adopted. Our preferred index, relying on threeyear disbursements, indicates a significant level of herding, similar to that which is found on financial markets. We also uncover major differences across different types of donors, with no, or very limited, herding among multilateral donors, in contrast to bilateral donors, always subject to herding behaviour. We then follow by investigating the empirical causes of herding. We find that while political transitions away from democracy are accompanied by herding out, transitions towards democracy do not affect herding levels. Finally, we show that observable determinants actually explain little of the herding levels, leaving a large part of herding unexplained. L’inefficacité, la fragmentation et la volatilité de l’aide au développement ont été souvent soulignées dans les travaux académiques comme dans ceux de l’OCDE. Un autre écueil relatif aux flux de capitaux a été beaucoup moins étudié : les comportements moutonniers. Cet article évalue ce comportement dans l’allocation de l’aide. Il s’inspire d’une méthodologie proche de celle utilisée pour les marchés financiers et propose différents indices qui prennent en compte les caractéristiques de l’allocation de l’aide au développement. Nous avons tenté ici de nous concentrer sur les purs évènements moutonniers, en excluant les comportements mimétiques bénéfiques, liés aux afflux d’aide qui suivent les tremblements de terre, des tsunamis ou autres désastres humanitaires : dans de tels cas, le suivisme des donateurs est bénéfique. Peux-t-on pour autant, à l’exclusion de ces cas, détecter des comportements moutonniers des donateurs, qui amplifieraient les mouvements de balanciers des flux, comparables à ce que l’on rencontre dans les marchés financiers ? Nos différents indices détectent tous la présence de comportements moutonniers au sein des donateurs. La magnitude exacte de ces comportements dépend de l’indice utilisé. Notre mesure préférée, basée sur les déboursements tri-annuels, indique des niveaux de comportement moutonnier similaires à ceux trouvés sur les marchés financiers. Nous mettons aussi en évidence d’importantes différences entre les types de donateurs. Le comportement moutonnier n’existe pas, ou très peu, entre les organisations multilatérales, tandis qu’il est présent entre les donateurs bilatéraux. Nous estimons ensuite empiriquement les causes du comportement moutonnier. Nous établissons que les transitions politiques vers moins de démocratie repoussent les pays donateurs de manière coordonnée. Au contraire, les transitions vers plus de démocratie ne modifient pas simultanément les décisions d’allocation de plusieurs donateurs. Enfin, nous montrons que les variables influençant les comportements moutonniers n’en expliquent qu’une faible partie. Il reste donc que la majeure partie de ces comportements reste inexpliquée.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 279.

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Date of creation: 15 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:279-en

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Keywords: volatility; aid; herding; fragmentation; fragmentation; volatilité; aide; comportement moutonnier;

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References

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  1. Stefaan Marysse & An Ansoms & Danny Cassimon, 2007. "The Aid 'Darlings' and 'Orphans' of the Great Lakes Region in Africa," European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 433-458.
  2. Knack, Stephen & Rahman, Aminur, 2007. "Donor fragmentation and bureaucratic quality in aid recipients," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 176-197, May.
  3. William Easterly & Tobias Pfutze, 2008. "Where Does the Money Go? Best and Worst Practices in Foreign Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 29-52, Spring.
  4. Alberto Alesina & Beatrice Weder, 1999. "Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?," NBER Working Papers 7108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gina Yannitell Reinhardt, 2006. "Shortcuts and Signals: An Analysis of the Micro-level Determinants of Aid Allocation, with Case Study Evidence from Brazil," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 297-312, 05.
  6. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
  7. Ryuichi Nakagawa & Hirofumi Uchida, 2004. "Herd Behavior In The Japanese Loan Market: Evidence From Bank Panel Data," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 737, Econometric Society.
  8. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-32, Nov.-Dec..
  9. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66.
  10. Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2007. "Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 259, OECD Publishing.
  11. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. Finn Tarp & Christian F. Bach & Henrik Hansen & Søren Baunsgaard, 1998. "Danish Aid Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 98-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  13. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
  14. Emmanuel Frot & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Development Aid and Portfolio Funds: Trends, Volatility and Fragmentation," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 275, OECD Publishing.
  15. Alberto Alesina & David Dollar, 1998. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," NBER Working Papers 6612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Helmut Reisen & Sokhna Ndoye, 2008. "Prudent versus Imprudent Lending to Africa: From debt relief to emerging lenders," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 268, OECD Publishing.
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  19. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
  20. Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2007. "Banking on Development: Private Banks ans Aid Donors in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 263, OECD Publishing.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Nunnenkamp & Hannes Öhler & Rainer Thiele, 2013. "Donor coordination and specialization: did the Paris Declaration make a difference?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 537-563, September.
  2. Ronald B. Davies & Stephan Klasen, 2013. "Of Donor Coordination, Free-Riding, Darlings, and Orphans: The dependence of bilateral aid on other bilateral giving," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 137, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  3. Öhler, Hannes, 2013. "Do Aid Donors Coordinate Within Recipient Countries?," Working Papers 0539, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  4. Andreas Fuchs & Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2012. "Determinants of Donor Generosity: A Survey of the Aid Budget Literature," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 121, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  5. Frot, Emmanuel & Olofsgård, Anders & Berlin, Maria Perrotta, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness in Times of Political Change: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 127-138.
  6. Kilby, Christopher, 2011. "What Determines the Size of Aid Projects?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 1981-1994.
  7. Andreas Fuchs & Peter Nunnenkamp & Hannes Öhler, 2013. "Why Donors of Foreign Aid Do Not Coordinate: The Role of Competition for Export Markets and Political Support," Kiel Working Papers 1825, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  9. Kurt Annen & Luc Moers, 2012. "Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation," IMF Working Papers 12/204, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Bain, Robert & Luyendijk, Rolf & Bartram, Jamie, 2013. "Universal access to drinking water: the role of aid," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  11. Oscar Becerra & Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "In the Aftermath of Large Natural Disasters, what happens to foreign aid?," Working Papers 201018, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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