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The HIPC Initiative: True and False Promises

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  • Daniel Cohen

Abstract

The paper develops the view that the perspective on the HIPC initiative is distorted by the fact that -contrary to the Brady deal itself- it lacks all perspective on the “market value” of the debt which is written down. The appropriate “market value” is one that takes account of the risk of non-payment: arrears, rescheduling and “constrained” refinancing of various sorts. Building upon econometric evidence that relies on middle income debtors in the eighties, the paper argues that the initiative is about ten times less generous than face value accounting would suggest ... Selon ce Document technique, l’évaluation de l'initiative PPTE (Pays Pauvres Très Endettés) est faussée par le fait que — contrairement à l'accord Brady — elle ne prend pas en compte la “valeur de marché” de la remise de dette. La “valeur de marché” exacte est celle qui intègre le risque de non-paiement : arriérés, rééchelonnements et refinancements “contraints” de différentes natures. A partir d'une analyse économétrique des débiteurs à revenu intermédiaire des années 80, le document affirme que l'initiative est à peu près dix fois moins généreuse que ce que pourrait laisser penser sa valeur faciale comptable ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/333105728152
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 166.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:166-en

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