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Agriculture and the Economic Cycle: An Economic and Econometric Analysis with Special Reference to Brazil

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  • Florence Contré
  • Ian Goldin
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    Abstract

    This study provides an economic and econometric analysis of agriculture in the economic cycle, with special reference to the recent experience of Brazil. Part One of the paper discusses the economic theory and points to the relevance of classical texts for analysis of agriculture's role in the economic crisis facing developing countries. Part Two of the paper tests the hypothesis that agriculture exercises a stabilising role in the economic cycle using statistical and econometric procedures. It offers a novel application of tests of cointegration and stationarity and concludes on this basis that agriculture does indeed exercise a stabilising role in the economic cycle. The study was concluded under the Development Centre's programme "Developing Country Agriculture and International Economic Trends", directed by Ian Goldin ... L'analyse économique et économétrique de l'agriculture dans l'ensemble du cycle économique, objet de cette étude, fait spécialement appel à l'expérience récente du Brésil. La première partie traite de la théorie économique et signale l'adéquation des textes classiques pour l'analyse du rôle de l'agriculture dans la crise économique des pays en développement. La deuxième partie évalue, à l'aide de statistiques et d'opérations econométriques, l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'agriculture a une fonction stabilisatrice dans le cycle économique. Il s'agit d'une application originale de tests de cointégration et de stationnarité qui conclut, sur ces bases, au rôle stabilisateur de l'agriculture dans le cycle économique. Cette étude entre dans le cadre du programme du Centre de Développement "Agriculture des pays en développement et évolution de l'économie internationale", dirigé par Ian Goldin ...

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 15.

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    Date of creation: Jun 1990
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:15-en

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