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Egypt needs to diversify exports further in order to emerge from its isolation and to draw the maximum advantage from the growth potential offered by trade globalisation. To what extent does the bilateral free trade agreement with the European Union encourage the transition from a rentier economy to one of export-led growth?
This paper uses a dynamic, calculable, general equilibrium model to assess different scenarios for the Egyptian economy to the year 2010. The authors reach the conclusion that the preferential trade agreement with Europe should facilitate the transition if the increase in trade results in higher Egyptian productivity through technology transfer and pressure from competition. Under these conditions, the agreement would seem to have a similar impact to that which could be expected from unilateral ...
Une diversification accrue des exportations apparaît aujourd’hui nécessaire à l’Égypte si elle désire rompre son isolement et profiter pleinement des potentialités de croissance que procure la globalisation des échanges. Dans quelle mesure l’accord bilatéral de libre-échange prévu avec l’Union européenne peut-il favoriser la transition d’une économie de rente vers une économie dont la croissance est tirée par les exportations ?
Ce document examine différents scénarios prospectifs de l’économie égyptienne à l’horizon 2010, à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique. Il en ressort que l’accord commercial préférentiel avec l’Europe devrait faciliter cette transition, si le renforcement des échanges permet de générer des gains importants de productivité en Égypte, grâce notamment aux transferts de technologies et à l’accroissement des pressions concurrentielles. A ces conditions, cet accord s’avérerait d’un impact comparable à celui que l’on pourrait attendre d’un ...
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.