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Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand

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Abstract

The paper develops an overlapping generations model incorporating a realistic depiction of the credit constraints facing home buyers to explain why home ownerships rates have declined in New Zealand since 1990 despite a significant relaxation of credit constraints. The model focuses attention on the role of property investors in the property market, and suggests changes in credit constraints mainly affect the tenure decisions of individual households, but not the aggregate level of house prices. The model suggests the decline in real interest rates is likely to be the cause of the rise in house prices and the decline in home ownership rates since 1990.

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  • Andrew Coleman, 2007. "Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2007/11
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    1. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
    2. Franco Modigliani, 1976. "Some Economic Implications of the Indexing of Financial Assets with Special Reference to Mortgages," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Mario Monti (ed.), The ‘New Inflation’ and Monetary Policy, chapter 3, pages 90-141, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    4. Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp296, Financial Markets Group.
    5. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    6. Luci Ellis, 2005. "Disinflation and the dynamics of mortgage debt," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 5-20, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Coleman, 2010. "I Squeezed in and squeezed out: the effects of population ageing on the demand for housing," Working Papers 10_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Andrew Coleman, 2010. "The long-term effects of capital gains taxes in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 159-177.
    3. Mr. Shengzu Wang & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/291, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353, June.
    5. De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.
    6. David Hargreaves, 2015. "Discussion of Housing Prices and Entrepreneurship: Evidence for the Housing Collateral Channel in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Angus Moore & John Simon (ed.),Small Business Conditions and Finance, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Yongsheng Jiang & Dong Zhao & Andrew Sanderford & Jing Du, 2018. "Effects of Bank Lending on Urban Housing Prices for Sustainable Development: A Panel Analysis of Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Mark Smith, 2010. "Evaluating household expenditures and their relationship with house prices at the microeconomic level," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Andrew Coleman, 2008. "Tax, Credit Constraints, and the Big Costs of Small Inflation," Working Papers 08_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    10. Emmanuel De Veirman & Michael Reddell, 2011. "Towards understanding what and when households spent," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 1-11, December.
    11. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    12. Andrew Coleman, 2008. "Inflation and the Measurement of Saving and Housing Affordability," Working Papers 08_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    13. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2011. "Submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry on housing affordability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 30-38, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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