Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options
AbstractWhat are the odds of a large shift in the exchange rate? Is a large depreciation more likely than a large appreciation? This paper uses over-the-counter New Zealand dollar/US dollar option prices to quantify market expectations of exchange rate uncertainty through measures based on risk-neutral probability distribution functions. Results suggest that the estimated probability distributions can provide important insights into market perceptions about exchange rate risk in the future. Econometric evidence indicates that the higher moments calculated from risk-neutral probability density functions can be used to explain the dynamic behaviour of the forward bias measured in the New Zealand dollar/US dollar exchange rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2002/04.
Date of creation: Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-06-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2002-06-13 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2002-06-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2002-06-13 (International Finance)
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