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Estimates Of Own Lethal Risks And Anchoring Effects

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Olivier Armantier ()

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Abstract

The paper presents an experiment showing that some of the results in Benjamin, Dougan and Buschena (2001) (BDB hereafter) should be attributed to an anchoring effect. More precisely, it appears that, when asked to evaluate successively the number of deaths per lethal risks for two different populations, respondents anchor their answers in the second survey, on the answers they gave in the first survey. The experimental outcomes also indicate that, contrary to BDB's conjecture, agents' estimates of their own lethal risks exhibit the traditional biases (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). However, if the quality of an estimate is measured not only by its mean, but also by its variance, then the present experiment cannot dismiss unambiguously BDB's hypothesis that agents have better information about their own risks.

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Paper provided by Stony Brook University, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 03-04.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:03-04

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  1. Dufwenberg, Martin & Gneezy, Uri, 2000. "Measuring Beliefs in an Experimental Lost Wallet Game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 163-182, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olivier Armantier & Nicolas Treich, 2006. "Overbidding in Independant Private-Values Auctions and Misperception of Probabilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2001. "The Wild Bootstrap, Tamed at Last," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 58, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gerking, Shelby & de Haan, Menno & Schulze, William, 1988. " The Marginal Value of Job Safety: A Contingent Valuation Study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 185-99, June.
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  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bolle, Friedel, 1990. "High reward experiments without high expenditure for the experimenter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 157-167, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Frank, Bjorn & Schulze, Gunther G., 2000. "Does economics make citizens corrupt?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 101-113, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Benjamin, Daniel K & Dougan, William R, 1997. "Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part I--A Reassessment of the Previous Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 115-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Olivier Armantier, 2006. "Do Wealth Differences Affect Fairness Considerations?," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-13, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Benjamin, Daniel K & Dougan, William R & Buschena, David, 2001. " Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II--New Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 35-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Francois Salanie & Nicolas Treich, 2002. "Regulating an agent with different beliefs," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 6-02, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Chaim Fershtman & Uri Gneezy & Frank Verboven, 2005. "Discrimination and Nepotism: The Efficiency of the Anonymity Rule," Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 371-396. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Murnighan, J. Keith & Saxon, Michael Scott, 1998. "Ultimatum bargaining by children and adults," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 415-445, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2005. "More efficient tests robust to heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00175914_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  20. Hakes, Jahn K & Viscusi, W Kip, 1997. "Mortality Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Reassessment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-50, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Glenn Harrison & Elisabet Rutström, 2006. "Eliciting Subjective Beliefs about Mortality Risk Orderings," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 325-346, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. J. Keith Murnighan & M.S. Saxon, 1998. "Ultimatum Bargaining by Children and Adults," Artefactual Field Experiments 0071, The Field Experiments Website. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Henrik Andersson & Petter Lundborg, 2007. "Perception of own death risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 67-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. ANDERSSON Henrik, 2008. "Perception of Own Death Risk : A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk," Working Papers 08.26.270, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Aadland & Arthur Caplan & Owen Phillips, 2007. "A Bayesian examination of information and uncertainty in contingent valuation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 149-178, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andersson, Henrik, 2008. "Perception of Own Death Risk: A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk," Working Papers 2008:11, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Andersson, Henrik & Lundborg, Petter, 2006. "Perception of Own Death Risk: An Analysis of Road-Traffic and Overall Mortality Risks," Working Papers 2006:1, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
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