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Transition Accounting for India in a Multi-Sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

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John Bailey Jones
Sohini Sahu

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Abstract

Using a quantitative methodology designed specifically for emerging economies, we measure the components of India's economic growth over the period 1960-2005. Our approach accounts for time-varying parameters, transitional dynamics and non-linear trends. We find that increased productivity in the service sector, facilitated by a structural shift toward services, is the principal driver of India's economic growth. Our measures also suggest that the allocation of inputs across sectors has not improved over this period, and in the case of labor appears to have significantly worsened. We further find that fluctuations in output around its trend are due primarily to fluctuations in sector-specific total factor productivity, with fluctuations in labor market distortions and labor taxes also playing important roles. In the period 1960-1980, productivity fluctuations in the agricultural sector are the dominant source of cycles. Since then, productivity fluctuations in the manufacturing and service sectors have been more important.

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Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-03.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:08-03

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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  5. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  12. Broze, Laurence & Gouri?roux, Christian & Szafarz, Ariane, 1995. "Solutions of multivariate Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 229-257, February. [Downloadable!]
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  13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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