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Merging Economic Forecasts

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  • Ehud Kalai
  • Ehud Lehrer

Abstract

Under the rational expectation s assumption of Muth, economic agents use their perfect knowledge of the distribution of future prices to compute optimal current actions. In private forecasts equilibrium, intorduced here, agents use subjective in accurate forecasts about future prices to compute optimal current actions. This paper studies the behavior of a group of expected-utility-maximizing, price-taking agents engaged in an infinite horizon dynamic economy. It is shown that in a private forecasts equilibrium, the subjective forecasts must eventually merge to the correct one, leading the agents to a Muth-type perfect forecast equillibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Merging Economic Forecasts," Discussion Papers 1035, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1035
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    File URL: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/papers/1035.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1994. "Weak and strong merging of opinions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-86, January.
    2. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-1045, September.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    4. Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1997. "Repeated Large Games with Incomplete Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 116-134, January.
    5. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
    6. Margaret Bray & David M. Kreps, 1987. "Rational Learning and Rational Expectations," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), Arrow and the Ascent of Modern Economic Theory, chapter 19, pages 597-625, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 1993. "Rational Expectations and Rational Learning," Game Theory and Information 9307003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
    2. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1994. "Weak and strong merging of opinions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-86, January.
    3. Felipe Perez-Marti, 2000. "Private Experience in Adaptive Learning Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 283-310, April.
    4. Felipe Pérez, 1998. "- Private Experience In Adaptive Learning Models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1998-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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