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Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation

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Author Info
Tilak Abeysinghe () (National University of Singapore)
Gulasekaran Rajaguru (Bond University)

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Abstract

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time series data for China and the group of ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). In this exercise we provide quarterly real GDP estimates for these countries derived by applying the Chow-Lin related series technique to annual real GDP series. The quality of the disaggregated series is evaluated through a number of indirect methods. Some potential problems of using readily available univariate disaggregation techniques are also highlighted.

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Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number wp0404.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0404

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Keywords: Univariate disaggregation Chow-Lin procedure first-difference method growth-rate method output linkages and forecast performance

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wang Xiaolu & Meng Lian, 2001. "A reevaluation of China's economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 338-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  6. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Keen Meng Choy, 2005. "Modelling Small Economy Exports: The Case of Singapore," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0501, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  4. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "The Relative Importance Of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels In Malaysia," CAMA Working Papers 2006-23, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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