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Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation

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Author Info
Tilak Abeysinghe () (National University of Singapore)
Gulasekaran Rajaguru (Bond University)

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Abstract

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time series data for China and the group of ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). In this exercise we provide quarterly real GDP estimates for these countries derived by applying the Chow-Lin related series technique to annual real GDP series. The quality of the disaggregated series is evaluated through a number of indirect methods. Some potential problems of using readily available univariate disaggregation techniques are also highlighted.

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Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number wp0404.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0404

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Related research
Keywords: Univariate disaggregation; Chow-Lin procedure; first-difference method; growth-rate method; output linkages and forecast performance;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  3. Wang Xiaolu & Meng Lian, 2001. "A reevaluation of China's economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 338-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Keen Meng Choy, 2005. "Modelling Small Economy Exports: The Case of Singapore," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0501, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hochrainer, Stefan, 2009. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters : are there any ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4968, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, . "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "The Relative Importance Of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels In Malaysia," CAMA Working Papers 2006-23, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156. [Downloadable!]
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