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Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation

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Author Info

  • Tilak Abeysinghe

    ()
    (National University of Singapore)

  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

    (Bond University)

Abstract

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time series data for China and the group of ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). In this exercise we provide quarterly real GDP estimates for these countries derived by applying the Chow-Lin related series technique to annual real GDP series. The quality of the disaggregated series is evaluated through a number of indirect methods. Some potential problems of using readily available univariate disaggregation techniques are also highlighted.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number wp0404.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0404

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Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/index.html
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Related research

Keywords: Univariate disaggregation; Chow-Lin procedure; first-difference method; growth-rate method; output linkages and forecast performance;

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  1. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  2. Wang Xiaolu & Meng Lian, 2001. "A reevaluation of China's economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 338-346.
  3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  4. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
  5. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
  6. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
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