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Stock Returns and the Dispersion in Earnings Forecasts

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  • Cheolbeom Park

    ()
    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

This paper derives a negative relationship between the dispersion of forecasts among investors and future stock returns based on Harrison and Kreps (1978). Using monthly data for earnings forecasts by market analysts, this paper presents empirically that the dispersion in forecasts has particularly strong predictive power for future stock returns at intermediate horizons (between 25 months and 44 months). The direction of predictive power from the dispersion for future stock returns is consistent with the derived negative relationship. Further, results suggest that the dispersion in forecasts contains information about future stock returns aside from the information contained in other variables.

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File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/wp0117.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number wp0117.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0117

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  1. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
  2. Owen Lamont, 1996. "Earnings and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 5671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange rate Market," Discussion Paper Series a347, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July.
  6. Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Papers 89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  8. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  9. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  10. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bamber, Linda Smith & Barron, Orie E. & Stober, Thomas L., 1999. "Differential Interpretations and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(03), pages 369-386, September.
  12. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
  13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  14. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
  15. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Differences of Opinion, Rational Arbitrage and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 7376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg & Gur Huberman, 2004. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Staff Reports 177, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Bokhyeon Baik & Cheolbeom Park, 2003. "Dispersion of analysts' expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 829-839.

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