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Endogenous Growth and Exogenous Shocks in Latin America during the Twentieth Century

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Author Info
Pablo Astorga () (Latin American Centre, St Antony’s College, Oxford)
Ame E. Bergés
Valpy Fitzgerald
Abstract

Using a new database for the whole 1900–2000 period, this paper estimates the relative contribution of endogenous and exogenous factors in GDP and productivity growth in each of the six larger Latin American economies with multivariate annual models, and complements these with a single aggregate model using panel data by decade to test for convergence within the region and with the US. Our method is innovative as it includes external economic shocks as well as endogenous growth variables. The main findings are: (i) that investment contributed most to growth during the middle of the century when the region was relatively closed to the world economy and state was proactive; (ii) that the six main economies did converge considerably over the century due to improvements in resource allocation, advances in health and education and increased investment effort; (iii) that these improvements were not, however, enough to produce convergence between Latin America and US; and (iv) that terms of trade volatility, trade and interest rate shocks were major obstacle to both sustained economic growth and catching up.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Oxford University Economic and Social History Series with number _057.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_057

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Related research
Keywords: Economic History Economic Growth Latin America

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - General Welfare
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. José De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1999. "Economic Growth in Latin America: Sources and Prospects," Documentos de Trabajo 66, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 351-71, September.
  4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    Other versions:
  8. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2004. "When Did Latin America Fall Behind?.Evidence From Long-Run International Inequality," Working Papers in Economic History wh046604, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Paola Barrientos, 2007. "Theory, History and Evidence of Economic Convergence in Latin America," Development Research Working Paper Series 13/2007, Institute for Advanced Development Studies. [Downloadable!]
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