FOMC Forecasts of Macroeconomic Risks
AbstractThis paper presents a new approach to the evaluation of FOMC macroeconomic forecasts. Its distinctive feature is the interpretation, under reasonable conditions, of the minimum and maximum forecasts reported in FOMC meetings as indicative of probability density forecasts for these variables. This leads to some straightforward binomial tests of the performance of the FOMC forecasts as forecasts of macroeconomic risks. Empirical results suggest that there are serious problems with the FOMC forecasts. Most particularly, there are problems with the FOMC forecasts of the tails of the macroeconomic density functions, including a tendency to under-estimate the tails of macroeconomic risks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Industrial Economics Division in its series Occasional Papers with number 12.
Date of creation: 09 2004
Date of revision: 10 Jan 2004
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Macroeconomic risks; FOMC forecasts; density forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-12-12 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-12-12 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2004-12-12 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla, 2007. "Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Time-Varying Copula: Evidence from the Americas," MPRA Paper 2711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- William T. Gavin & Geetanjali Pande, 2008. "FOMC consensus forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 149-164.
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